A Time to Act

The Conflagration Clock is approaching midnight.

The Doomsday Clock

Since 1947 the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has maintained the “Doomsday Clock,” which is a symbol, a metaphor, that estimates the likelihood of human-made global catastrophe. Each January the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board assesses new developments in technology, geopolitics and the life-sciences that could inflict catastrophe and irrevocable harm to humanity on a global scale.

When first established 78 years ago the Doomsday Clock assessment declared our global society to be “7 minutes to midnight.” Using that as a benchmark, danger of global catastrophe has waxed and waned, but waxed more often. Since the original assessment, which was intended to suggest that real danger of global catastrophe existed, the Clock has been set backward eight times and forward eighteen times. In 1991 the assessment moved to its furthest point back at 17 minutes to midnight.

The closest assessment set the Clock at 89 seconds to midnight, which was established in January 2025. Which suggests we are closer to global catastrophe than at any time since 1947.

I did not set out today to write about the Doomsday Clock, only to use is as an analogy in another story line. However, finding out that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists believes we are closer to global catastrophe than ever before, well, I might have to return to the Doomsday Clock another day, let me just leave it at that for now.

The Conflagration Clock

I think San Francisco needs a Conflagration Clock, in the same vein as the Doomsday version. A proxy measurement for how close we are to another massive earthquake and subsequent firestorm and conflagration as was experienced in 1906, combined with a measure for how ill-prepared the city is for such an earthquake and post-quake catastrophes.

I think the assessment will need to be a little different, the “Big One,” another earthquake of the magnitude (e.g. 7.8 on the Richter scale) of the 1906 quake is completely outside the sphere of human influence. The Doomsday Clock assesses outcomes that are, at a minimum, influenced by human decisions.

Therefore, my Conflagration Clock needs to, primarily, assess preparedness in San Francisco. And because I have named it the Conflagration Clock that means preparedness to fight the firestorm that will likely result from the catastrophic destruction of an earthquake of that magnitude.

Moreover, that assessment must take into account myriad political pushes and pulls and broad political and civic narratives within the City and County of San Francisco. For example, the city has approached the voters three times in the last 15 years via ballot measures to approve bond issuances totaling approximately $312 million borrowed for the express purpose of the expansion of the Auxiliary Water Supply System (AWSS) — [for more AWSS background see: Follow the Fire Hydrant Money] — into the western and southern neighborhoods where it is currently lacking.

If you think about that for a moment, three times the city has gone to the voters and said give us bonding authority and we will borrow the money necessary to expand AWSS into those places that have none. Three times the voters, city-wide, agreed that being prepared for “The Big One” and the consequent conflagration and firestorm was worth the investment. Three times they voted yes in significant majorities.

However, nary a blue (or black or red) topped fire hydrant has appeared in The Sunset or any of the other inadequately protected neighborhoods. Not a foot of AWSS pipe has been laid in these neighborhoods either. When assessing how close the Conflagration Clock is to midnight, I must take into account that eventually the voters are going to ask what happened to the money from the last three bonds? And eventually, they will want an answer before they accede to dipping into the bond well one more time.

[a blue-topped AWSS high-pressure fire hydrant that is NOT located in The Sunset (or The Richmond, etc.) — photo credit, John Crabtree]

I believe that many voters are asking that question right now. More than a few have asked me that question. I think they deserve an answer, sooner rather than later.

After much thought and analysis, I am announcing my assessment of the San Francisco Conflagration Clock as reading 4 minutes to midnight. Unlike the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, I am not going to wait a year to reassess, and I invite any and all of you to weigh in with me. Strong evidence and compelling arguments will cause me to reassess and if that happens, I will report back here.

A Time to Act

The Civil Grand Jury (2018-2019)

That is a strong, concise explanation of the purpose and function of the Civil Grand Jury. I have mentioned the 2018-2019 Civil Grand Jury Final AWSS Report previously and I will write more on it in the future. Today, I want to highlight their findings to buttress my argument that the Conflagration Clock risk assessment is not some wild imaginings in my head but an actual threat to the future safety of the people of San Francisco, especially those of us out here in the Way Out West.

The Civil Grand Jury believes it is essential that we take prompt and aggressive action to expand and enhance our defenses against the inevitable fires following an earthquake before it is too late. All parts of the City – north and south, east and west, rich and poor, downtown and residential neighborhoods – deserve to be well protected against this catastrophic risk.

Today, the City has a seismically safe high-pressure Auxiliary Water Supply System (AWSS) -- separate and distinct from the low-pressure municipal water supply system (MWSS) -- that provides excellent firefighting protection to parts of the City.

However, large parts of the City, such as the outer Richmond, outer Sunset, and Bayview/Hunters Point, among others, do not have a high-pressure AWSS and are not nearly as well protected.

ACT NOW BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE: AGGRESSIVELY EXPAND AND ENHANCE HIGH-PRESSURE EMERGENCY FIREFIGHTING WATER SYSTEM — 2018-2019 Civil Grand Jury Report, Executive Summary

Referring back to the duties and functions coversheet posted above, here are some of the topline recommendations made by the Civil Grand Jury in their AWSS report.

1. The City should be prepared to fight fires in all parts of the City in the event of a repeat of a 1906 size earthquake.

2. The City should aggressively develop a high-pressure, multi-sourced, seismically safe emergency water supply for those parts of the City that don’t currently have one, with a target completion date of no later than 2034.

Four minutes to midnight, remember that I said that. In coming days, I will examine how various city departments responded, or failed to respond, to the Civil Grand Jury’s conclusions and recommendations.

john